Introduction

Situation of the global economy


Under the assumptions of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and our
forecast:
- The global economy is in recession in early 2010. the
Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2% in 2009 and recover
slightly, from 3.4% in 2010.
- The United States, Japan and the euro zone will be in recession for
same year.
- Global growth will resume again from 2011-2013
the relative recovery of the U.S. economy.
- The growth of world trade will fall in 2009, before
resume again in 2010-2013, but it will still remain in
below 7%.
- The weakness of trade growth will undoubtedly an
impact on exports of a number of emerging markets.
- The U.S. dollar meanwhile will strengthen against the euro (and
other major foreign currencies) from the end of 2009, all
other regions will see reductions in interest rates
and the global market will be the economies of these regions then become the
least as low as the U.S. economy.